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This kind of theory would fit with it being the last job to be automated, but not with it taking another forty years before an unspecified age of full automation.) III.

The last part is the most interesting for me: what do AI researchers believe about risk from superintelligence?

I’ve been waiting for a new survey for a while, and now we have one.

Grace et al (New Scientist article, paper, see also the post on the author’s blog AI Impacts) surveyed 1634 experts at major AI conferences and received 352 responses. The headline result: the researchers asked experts for their probabilities that we would get AI that was “able to accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers”.

This is very different from the earlier questions about timelines.